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Izumi3682 Archives

ould evil AI research be published? Five experts weigh in. by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 28 days ago
For now, though, it’s unlikely that anyone will come up with AGI — much less evil AGI — anytime soon.
What characterizes "anytime soon"? Five years? Ten years? 50 years? I have a very hard time believing it will take 50 more years. In 50 years the technological singularity (hopefully human friendly) will have occurred and even the most skeptical AI expert believes this.
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What Would It Take to Build a Tower as High as Outer Space? by dwaxe in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 2 points 28 days ago
I think they tried this with the Tower of Babel and you saw how that turned out. But truthfully, I don't think it is physically possible with the materials and technologies we have today.
The idea of a "space elevator" while also a supreme engineering challenge is far and away more likely through "graphene" technology. A technology that as of today is little scaled up unfortunately. Certainly not enough to be able to tether out to a 120 mile away geostationary orbiting body acting as an "anchor" in space.
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Open AI bots fall to human Dota 2 players at The International 2018 by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 28 days ago
GPUs weren't like some revelation.
That's not the way I understand this history. The discovery that GPUs had the appropriate architecture to enable true CNNs was a serendipitous discovery on par with the discovery of penicillin. The entire 1990s-early 2000s AI "winter" was due to barking up the wrong CPU tree. The NVIDIA GPU made video games look good prior to 2007. But in less than 3 years after that discovery, GPUs were already in "off-label" applications for deep learning. And of course all the rest of it is history. In effect a stunningly sudden and transformative technological breakthrough.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/aarontilley/2016/11/30/nvidia-deep-learning-ai-intel/#77b15bf7ff1e
What do you think of these developments?
Here is the latest information on the "Deepmind/StarCraft 2" experiment. The goal of course is the same as the goal of "Go". To beat all human comers.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01561 "Impala" Chip from Alphabet
and
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01830 Deepmind/ StarCraft 2 project
Is there progress being made that could be exploited in less than 5 years? I can't imagine we will not see some amazing new breakthroughs in the next one or two years even. I also can't imagine such a progress will take longer than five years either. Not the way we are going since the year 2015.
The concluding sentence from the IMPALA pdf.
We believe that IMPALA provides a simple yet scalable and robust framework for building better Deep-RL agents and has the potential to enable research on new challenges.
Me: Like AGI?
Also if you would be willing I need really precise answers to something I asked about before.
This the predicted computer processing speed for 2015 and 2018 as forecast in the year 2012.
The value for the year 2015:
2.25 x 10 to the 15th power
The value for this year (2018)
9.01 x 10 to the 15th power
What is the actual processing speed for the year 2018 or for the year 2015?
Turns out you can just brute force it with a little math.
That's a very telling statement. Before a human was defeated with computational processing, it was believed that it was impossible to beat a human at chess with a computer. And your statement that the defeat of human "Go" players was not that big of a deal and involved simple search trees and reinforcement makes me wonder what else can be accomplished through "brute force".
Have we arrived to the point where the essence of a function can be an influence or cognitive infrastructure to the performance of unrelated tasks within the same 'chip'? No wiping necessary. That is the impression I get from this "Impala" chip.
Remember I stated earlier that even if you have ten million narrow AIs stuck into a functional humanoid robot, that not one single narrow AI can influence another.
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I believe we'll have level 5 self driving cars by 2020, human driving will be banned starting in 2022 by sanem48 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 28 days ago
What do you think of this development. Nobody is trying to hide anything, but I'm not sure if this is the real thing or merely a step to the real thing.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/99btkv/artificial_general_intelligence_is_here_and/
I posted this about a week ago, but since this sub-reddit seems more concerned with subjects like climate change, it did not get too many views. My feeling is that AI is going to change things so substantially in ten years that we will have a lot bigger fish to fry than climate change.
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For First Time in 40 Years, Cure for Acute Leukemia Becomes Possibility (in mice, but...) by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 28 days ago
Important takeaway.
Together with Ben-Neriah’s research team, they are now applying for FDA approval for phase I clinical studies. BioTheryX is preparing now with the research team to apply for Food and Drug Administration approval for phase I clinical studies in the US.
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Oklahoma oral surgeons help patients preserve stem cells by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 28 days ago
Telling takeaway.
There is an added cost - but doctors said, if you can afford it, it's a no-brainer.
Italics added by me, cuz "afford" is the operative term here.
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Companies Offer Employees Hope With Stem Cell Storage Benefits - These cells could come in handy for treating a variety of maladies, such as heart disease, Parkinsons, and Alzheimers. “We are a longevity company helping to extend life spans”. by [deleted] in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 28 days ago
I think it is a terrific idea to store your stem cells, but I think it is a horrible idea for your employer to store your stem cells. If for whatever reason you become no longer associated with that employer, they just toss your stem cells if you can't make other arrangements in, say, 30 days.
Oh, you can't afford it? Sorry.
And bear in mind the only stem cells that really matter are from the youngest you possible. So your window is pretty narrow anyways. By the time you are over the age of 25 it is really already too late.
If this technology is as vital as I imagine it may be, it should be a societal right for every single human to store their stem cells when you are still an infant or a very young child.
(It's way too late for the likes of me. I have to hope for alternate avenues.)
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I believe we'll have level 5 self driving cars by 2020, human driving will be banned starting in 2022 by sanem48 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 0 points 28 days ago
I added you! You are actually more enthusiastic about this than I am. And I consider myself pretty enthusiastic. But the bottom line is that most humans, to include me, are not very good at exponential thinking. It is utterly counter-intuitive and could be well regarded as fantasy, magical thinking or detachment from reality. But humanity now with the computer processing speeds and capacities needs to begin to understand just what is really taking place here.
All of mans silly little affairs pale to insignificance in comparison.
If you are interested you can read my forecasts too! lol!
Oh wait! You did already! Did you read my rabbit hole of links too?
Like Clarissa, I explain it all!
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Open AI bots fall to human Dota 2 players at The International 2018 by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 28 days ago
I should qualify that better. Deepmind was purchased by Google in the year 2014. In 2015 they (Deepmind) released the new GPU/CPU enabled narrow AI, AlphaGo, designed specifically to compete against humans in the the game "Go". But it was the GPU that made the difference. All the difference in the world.
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NVIDIA Just Changed the Future of Gaming by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 3 points 28 days ago
NVIDIA have been busy little bees. It is not just gaming. Now E-SDVS and healthcare fall under their purview. Why? That little miracle, the GPU.
It is going to change all of us. Me, I can't wait.
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Open AI bots fall to human Dota 2 players at The International 2018 by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 29 days ago
Consider the ten year difference between 1856 and 1866. Consider the ten year difference between 1912 and 1922. Consider the ten year difference between 1936 and 1946. The societal changes and the technological advancements.
War drove the evolution of technology and society. But now we have something far and away more transformative than any war in history. The industrial revolution replaced the human (and horse and oxen) muscle. The AI revolution has a goal of nothing less than replacing the human mind.
Today a new iteration of AI which really did not emerge in it's present form until 2015 with the GPU driven Deepmind AI, is now in the process of evolution. It is going to evolve very rapidly because we have finally reached the point in computer processing speed and capacity that it can. Five years from now will be incredible. Ten years from today will be nothing short of what we would perceive as "magickal".
That "magickal" business could be a big societal issue.
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Open AI bots fall to human Dota 2 players at The International 2018 by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 2 points 29 days ago
We would have, but we made a conscious political decision not to. We went to the moon six times between 1969 and 1972. The one mission that did not make the moon landing, used good old fashioned brilliant human intelligence to make it back to Earth safe and sound from a critically threatening and truly desperate situation due to a mechanical malfunction. And for several of those voyages we ran a dune buggy around on the Moon. No, the technology has always been there. We just decided it was not a top government priority once we proved to be better at space than the Soviet Union.
I credit the sputnik moment for the fire it built under the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhJnt3xW2Fc&index=30&list=FLRaQyjJEBTXrO4ffE6jfVZg&t=2s
This documentary is absolutely fascinating and shows exactly how we got from sputnik shock to Apollo. Learn and know your history. It is vitally important.
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Open AI bots fall to human Dota 2 players at The International 2018 by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 20 points 29 days ago
Four years ago, the robots all fell down at the DARPA challenge and when they moved, it was slow as grass growing. No major automaker had any plans to make level 5 autonomy self-driving cars. Google's "Deepmind" had not yet been released. No one was going to beat humans at "Go" for at least 20 more years. Narrow AIs could not yet read medical imagery better than human physicians. There was no such thing as a 4K monitor that cost under 20,000 dollars. Consumer VR was 2 years in the future yet.
Our time is growing short now. Enjoy the reprieve.
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Fujitsu to boost its supercomputing speed 100 times by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 0 points 1 month ago
How does this advance compare to "Moore's Law" or this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRG8eq7miUE
I said the following in my "izumi3682 and the world of tomorrow" scree.
You can call that "Moore's Law or whatever you like. I call it stupefying progress. And now that progress is accelerating. Pause the video at the year 2015 and consider that is the year Deepmind's "AlphaGo" came into existence...
I don't care beans about how the processing power will equal that of the human mind. We are going to rocket past that arbitrary benchmark like it didn't exist anyway! No, pay attention to that doubling of processing speed and data capacity. That is what matters. That is rocket fuel for our AI efforts. By the way based on that video, about 2 years after the video ends computer processing power will make another full Lake Michigan of processing power and 2 years or so after that them two "lakes" will double again. I don't think I am extrapolating incorrectly. This is not even taking into account the likely transcendent effect of the quantum computer. I suspect that quantum computers will replace binary computers in their entirety in less than 20 years. I wonder what we shall come up with that is better than a quantum computer?
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/8cy6o5/izumi3682_and_the_world_of_tomorrow/
But while we are here can anyone answer a question or two I have about our computing speed progress. This video is from the year 2013. So all values are extrapolations after the year 2012 probably. My questions are, does this show an accurate value from the year 2009?
Assuming the value for 2009 is history by that point. Is this the correct value for 2009?
1.41 x 10 to the 14th power (I don't know how to do superscripts)
The value for the year 2015:
2.25 x 10 to the 15th power
The value for this year (2018)
9.01 x 10 to the 15th power
Is actual computing speed lagging behind these forecasts, pretty much on target or are the forecasts falling short of the reality? And does it matter?
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Our species has existed for over 200,000 years whilst the majority of our advancements have occurred in the last 200. It's easy to forget that we owe our prosperity to those ancient ancestors who slowly learned and passed on their knowledge through generations who lived in far less comfort. by CosmicNihilist in Showerthoughts


[–]izumi3682 2 points 1 month ago
Yep.
https://www.reddit.com/useizumi3682/comments/9786um/but_whats_my_motivation_artificial_general/
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Our species has existed for over 200,000 years whilst the majority of our advancements have occurred in the last 200. It's easy to forget that we owe our prosperity to those ancient ancestors who slowly learned and passed on their knowledge through generations who lived in far less comfort. by CosmicNihilist in Showerthoughts


[–]izumi3682 2 points 1 month ago
Yep.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/4k8q2b/is_the_singularity_a_religious_doctrine_23_apr_16/d3d0g44/
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How will an ideal society under full scale automation work? by corimaith in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 5 points 1 month ago
the 'haves' and the 'super-haves'. Works for me!
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How will an ideal society under full scale automation work? by corimaith in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
If we don't get "post-scarcity", the only alternative I see is societal upheaval. TLDR; The 1% would win and continue into a magnificent future. You and me? Long gone.
(Unless the AI kills them (the 1%) too. Then the AI continues into an unimaginable future.)
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How will an ideal society under full scale automation work? by corimaith in Futurology


[–]izumi3682 1 point 1 month ago
Hiya mr longjumpers! What excess? Excess people that are in busy work jobs? That ARA can readily take over?
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Experts from Box, Trivago, Intuit, and Nara Logics discuss how AI is changing product development by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
I think it's an interesting write up
<3
How bout this one?
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/
Not to get off the subject, but you know we are pretty much going to be scientifically immortal too right? We are going to be around for all of this come hell or high water.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6k32lx/maximum_human_lifespan_may_increase_to_125_years/djixmzs/
And then this next! :D
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7gpqnx/why_human_race_has_immortality_in_its_grasp/dqku50e/
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Experts from Box, Trivago, Intuit, and Nara Logics discuss how AI is changing product development by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Whether or not we'll have AI scientists or total human replacement by AI is another question.
That's the slippery slope I was talking about. Do you think we will stop at having general intelligence to train a given system almost immediately?
Consider a few metaphors in your mind, and how nonsensical they are in a literal sense. They make sense to us because we can abstract reality into concepts and use them in language to make interesting comparisons.
God help us if the AGI can ever do this. This to me is terrifying in concept.
I wrote this the other day and I think it is germane to what we are talking about now.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/967ope/could_machine_learning_mean_the_end_of/e3yctyv/
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Experts from Box, Trivago, Intuit, and Nara Logics discuss how AI is changing product development by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
You'll never be able to merge these computers together with classical systems (not that this makes any sense) or shrink them down into phone size and that's just physics. Quantum system needs to be isolated from any type of noise lest they fall into decoherence. Literally even having a stray atom interact with what you're doing causes everything to collapse.
I understand all that. I've always known. When do you suppose we shall achieve this so-called "quantum supremacy". I mean, smart people like Alphabet bandy that term around, not me. I just observe. I understand you believe things are intractable or impossible because you work directly with them. That's kind of the nature of not seeing the forest for the trees. But history seems to prove otherwise in so many instances. And remember what I said about the nature of nature. New discoveries could utterly change current beliefs and understanding. That has happened a lot before too. By the way I fully understand how a classical computer and quantum computer operate. I also know it is not physically possible to "con-join" them in some kind of way. I just said our technology will continue to improve as the years go by. Just way faster than it has for the last 100 years is all. Or 50 years. Or 25 years.
...and understanding something. I think the last one evades you.
Ad hominem. It's all good. I understand a lot.
More general systems are definitely a good thing.
I don't think so. What is the intent of something like that? To run everything? I think it is a slippery slope to Elon's (if yer not Elon that is) "summoning the demon". Let's go with the "Neuralink".
Oh I added this on to the other comment when you may have already responded and may not have seen it. What do you think.
What do you think of this idea? About intelligent space aliens. I mean if they can even exist. I bet a lot of people do not take this into consideration when they think about faster than light space alien travel or megastructures around stars.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/
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Experts from Box, Trivago, Intuit, and Nara Logics discuss how AI is changing product development by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
Don't we? Tools, painting, jewelry, burying the dead, language, etc. These all require abstract thinking. Total nonsense.
When I wrote that statement I already knew I was pretty much correct. Most evidence of that level of cognitive behavior does not show until about 50,000 years ago. The Wikipedia article stated that the primary theory is that this kind of behavior simply did not exist before 50,000 years ago and potentially credits a sudden genetic change. But you are correct that there is archeological evidence of burial by archaic homo sapiens 100,000 years ago. But what was also absolutely going on at the same time was Homo Neanderthalis planned burials. And art. And jewelry. Is it possible archaic H. Sapiens simply copied things the H. Neanderthalis was doing? H. Neanderthalis clearly demonstrates a level of cognitive ability that archaic H. Sapiens did not yet possess. The rest is evidence.
Painting 40,000 years ago. Jewelry 40,000 years ago. Music 40,000 years ago.
I don't want to debate about free will though.
Ok, no debate on free will. I was just saying what the most recent scholarship is saying.
That really remains to be seen. We're running into hard, physical limits.
One thing that humans are super good at doing, and I think you have to agree, is coming up with new ideas and workarounds, that eventually become the new technology. It is the "stone knives and bearskins" primitive year 2018. General quantum computers do not yet exist. When they do exist, we will improve on them. Perhaps we will make some kind of chimera of classical and quantum computer. Who knows. Or maybe we shall figure out how to make a quantum computer behave like a classical computer. Something I regard today as physically not possible yet. Do the laws of physics prohibit such a development?
Further we are going to uncover so much more about the nature of reality in the next ten years. Little less the next 100 years. Such a miniscule drop in the ocean of human history. Science that we probably will be able to exploit with technology. I bet we are in for a few more "Earth is not the center of the universe" discoveries. Scary things.
You have a lot of opinions about a field dominated by mathematics and physics when you haven't a clue about either.
OMG! I am so blessed to be alive in this day and age when I can transcend my partial blindness by having the sum total of human knowledge at my fingertips. I can vet something in the blink of an eye. Literally already today we begin the hive mind that I can partake in. Granted it's rudimentary ;) but without even having to merge my mind physically with the machine, I can already get the benefits of scholarship and education that I lack. And boy have I learned a lot in 5 years!
I don't think AGI, however you define it, is a good idea. Narrow AI is all we need. We need to merge the biological human mind with the machine. I hope we can for our sakes.
What do you think of this idea? About intelligent space aliens. I mean if they can even exist. I bet a lot of people do not take this into consideration when they think about faster than light space alien travel or megastructures around stars.
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/6zu9yo/in_the_age_of_ai_we_shouldnt_measure_success/dmy1qed/
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Elon Musk's OpenAI ‘Dota’ Team Is About to Face Off at a $11m Tournament by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
But how far is rudimentary from not so rudimentary. I just watch these little breakthroughs trickling in. But each adds to the previous. Plus we keep setting the goalposts back. The Deepmind narrow AI that beat the best "Go" players on Earth, "well that was just narrow AI". But didn't that same narrow AI use the same methods with no additional training to master two related games? I mean I'm just watching.
And I have to ask. What exactly is it we want, what we would properly define as an AGI, to do? Run our lives for us? Because that seems to be the intent.
Oh also do you distinguish between an AGI and an EI?
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Elon Musk's OpenAI ‘Dota’ Team Is About to Face Off at a $11m Tournament by izumi3682 in Futurology


[–]izumi3682[S] 1 point 1 month ago
What about stuff like this though. Also I'm not that random, I been here like 5 years! lol!
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/7l8wng/if_you_think_ai_is_terrifying_wait_until_it_has_a/drl76lo/
I can add one more to that list too. In the year 2015 some of the top experts in AI and computing said that it would take over 100 years for level 5 autonomy vehicles to actually be deployed. Do you think it is really going to take 100 years? I think about... 3.
You know what they built across the street from my work? An electric charging station. The world is changing as we speak. But you what is going to disappear or change so profoundly that... well...
https://www.reddit.com/Futurology/comments/8r348z/automateddriving_technology_is_starting_to_show/e0o1vy5/
I bet you 100 dollars we have full AGI, as you would define it, in 5 years. (Whether or not is also an EI will be interesting to see.) And I will happily pay up if I am wrong. You don't have to pay me if I am right. So it's win-win for you.
submitted by izumi3682 to u/izumi3682

Counter Strafe Null Bind for Competitive?

This bind is commonly used for KZ. When you press Left (A) it auto releases Right (D) so you do not even overlap or reverse strafe thus improving sync. Better strafes, better Longjumps, etc.
I was wondering if theoretically it would be advantageous to use in normal CS if it resets your movement value to 0 faster, allowing you to start shooting earlier after strafing.
With the AWP, I tested it and the blur of the crosshair seems to sharpen a tiny bit faster. Could be wrong.
Any opinions on this?
Here is the link for the null bind. https://gist.github.com/anonymous/28d580aae1d686250210
submitted by theRealFakez to GlobalOffensive

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