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[R&D] Russian Drones Roadmap
Aerial Vehicles2024: Sukhoi Okhotnik (this year)
The Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B is a Russian stealth heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) being developed by Sukhoi and Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG as a sixth-generation aircraft project. The drone is based on the earlier Mikoyan Skat, designed by MiG, and encompassing some technologies of the fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet. While touted as a sixth-generation bomber concept, the Okhotnik has emerged as more of a 5+ generation UCAC, holding some characteristics of a 6th generation fighter such as:
• More modular design going beyond wing hardpoints with primary aircraft components able to be swapped out within hours to optimize for the mission requirements and easing the introduction of future upgrades.
• Battlefield data fusion with the aircraft acting as a network node capable of receiving and relaying data to multiple other platforms such as aircraft, ground vehicles or satellites and processing that data onboard to dynamically generate new target lists or update mission parameters on the fly.
• Increased-range stand off weapons with the drones conducting reconnaissance within enemy airspace and supplying targeting data to the fighter which remains safely outside enemy airspace.
In addition to other features of 5th generation aircraft such as a stealth coating, internal weapons storage, and S shaped exhaust for reduced infrared and radar signatures.
2025 - The Mikoyan Skat
The Skat is a low-observable, subsonic UCAV meant to carry weapons in two ventral weapons bays large enough for missiles such as the Kh-31, which although cancelled in the 2010s, was announced to have been revived in late 2019, with development of the drone having restarted midway through 2020.
Powered by a single Klimov RD-5000B turbofan engine, a variant of the RD-93. The single-engine subsonic design has an 11.5 meter (37.7 ft) wingspan, and is 10.25 meters (33.6 ft) long. The UCAV is to have a maximum takeoff weight of ten tons, with a maximum speed of 800 kilometers per hour (497 mph) at low altitude. It is intended to carry a combat load of up to two tons, with a combat radius of 2,000 km (1,240 miles).
The Mikoyan Skat will have a modular design similar to the Okhotnik, being able to swap in entirely different components to provide maximum flexibility. One of the loadouts of the Mikoyan Skat will be as electronic warfare platform, in which Russia's RUK-Q1 wideband receivers and RUK-R1 Electronic Warfare pods which will be capable of high, mid and low-band tactical jamming.
2027 - 2032: Status and Re-Tuning of the the PAK-DA Stealth Bomber Program
Tupolev, which completed its first three prototypes of the PAK-DA stealth bomber program in 2021 (just the irl timeline Russia claims), will be partnering with Mikoyan and Sukhoi for a re-orientation of the Russian stealth bomber program. While the manned version of the PAK-DA will still be introduced into the Russian Air Force in 2027, Tupolev will be embarking on a new program to create a remotely piloted, unmanned version of the bomber. With assistance from Sukhoi and Mikoyan, the software for a remotely piloted version of the PAK-DA project will be developed, along with the necessary ground support infrastructure including the ground control station and existing communications networks.
Externally, the base specifications of the PAK-DA will be the same, with subsonic speed, 12,000 km operational range and a capability to continuously remain in the air for up to 30 hours while carrying both conventional and nuclear payloads up to 30 tons. However, the Russian air force envisions a fleet of bombers which will be able to fly dangerous, long range missions with minimal risk to pilots by creating a bomber fleet made up of at least 60% drones. In addition to this, the removal of the cockpit allows for the introduction of expanded electronic warfare and surveillance equipment, taking the bomber from just a stealth bomber to an intelligence gatherer, battle manager, or jamming platform capable of operating in hostile airspace. The first trials of the autonomous PAK-DA project will begin in 2030, with serial production of the unmanned version beginning in late 2031 and reaching full production by 2032. The Russian Air Force will be acquiring 20 manned PAK-DA bombers (to be given an official name later), and a total of 30 unmanned PAK-DA Aircraft, at an estimated average cost of $180 million USD per unit. The introduction of the PAK-DA will se a significant reduction in the need for the Tu-95 bear, and as a result will be followed by the retiring of the Tu-95 bomber.
2025: KUB-BLA Loitering Munition
The KUB-BLA, also known as KYB, Kamikaze drone or Cube in English, is a strike drone developed by the Kalashnikov Concern to take out targets of opportunity by self exploding in close proximity. The propeller powered unmanned air vehicle (UAV) has been designed to fly at an airspeed of 80 to 130 kilometers per hour for about 30 minutes carrying a 3 kilogram explosive payload. Besides, the strike drone represents a difficult target for modern air defenses due to its small size. The drone system was tested in Syria between 2015 and 2018. The KYB was introduced at the IDEX exhibition in the United Arab Emirates in February 2019, and will be entering production by the end of 2024, and reaching mass pdoduction in 2025.
2026: Lancet Loitering Munition and the Lancet Junior
In development since 2020 the Lancet Loitering Munition will be a land, air, and sea based loitering munition with Dual EO/IR and anti-radiation seeker, which will be capable of being fully autonomous or MITL functional. Similar to the IAI Harpy, the platform is designed to attack radar systems and is optimised for the suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) role through the use of a high explosive warhead.
The self loitering munition an endurance of three hours, be capable of flying at up to 5,000 kilometers altitude, and have a maximum operational range of 1,000 kilometers (or 6 hours). If launched in an autonomous mode, the munitions will be fireable to patrol specific geographic area, operating as an intelligent multitasking weapon that can independently find a given target and hit it by using its anti-radiation abilities autonomously home in on radio emissions.
Notably, the Lancet will use an electrical propulsion system with 43 horsepower, which will enable the device to fly with minimal to no noise.
The lancet mini will be one-fifth the size and have a lighter 3–4 kg (6.6–8.8 lb) warhead. It will be cheaper and have a shorter endurance of 3 hours to be used tactically against time-critical targets or ones that hide and re-appear.
The Lancet will cost $10 million per drone, and the Lancet Mini will cost $6 million per drone.
Land Based DronesBattle tested in Syria in 2019, the trials of the platform have revealed that the reality is the Uran-9 was a hot mess. The developers of the Uran will be partnering with the Ural Design Bureau to work out the kinks of the Uran-9 for improved reliability and combat effectiveness.
• One of the most serious problems with the Uran-9 was the short tether of the vehicle, on average capable of straying only 1,000 to 1,600 feet from its manned control station. Uran-9 lost contact with the control station 19 times--17 times for a minute or less, and at least in one case up to 1.5 hours. The problem was exacerbated in urban fighting centers with buildings blocking the radio signal. Working with the Ural Design Bureau, the sensors of the Uran-9 will be reworked to create more powerful radio signals, and equip the drone with signal boosters which will be hidden under its armored core.
• Uran-9 is a tracked vehicle, with tracks instead of road wheels. The rollers and suspension that keep the vehicle running smoothly were rated of low reliability and required field repairs. Likely caused by the contractors lack of experience with creating tracked vehicles and suspensions, the Ural Design Bureau will be equipping the Uran-9 with what could best be described as a miniaturized version of the treads and suspension found on the T-14 Armata tank, for increased performance and to hopefully solve the issue of poor reliability.
• The remote fire control system is also a problem, with the 2A72 experiencing a lag before firing six times and an outright failure once. Another problem with the Uran is that the armament, optics, and sensors aren’t stabilized for firing on the move, requiring the vehicle to stop first. Once again all of these systems will be reworked from the ground up with the Ural Design Bureau to eliminate any issues related to latency and minimize equipment failure.
2026 - Rolling Out The Status-6 ProgramThe Poseidon UUV is a family of autonomous, nuclear-powered, and nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle that has been under development by the Rubin Design Bureau for over a decade now, capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear payloads. The family of UUVs is intended to act as an asymmetric counter to U.S. missile defense systems, such as anti-ballistic missiles, railguns, or laser weapons, ensuring Russia's capability to overcome such systems. The nuclear armed Poseidon carries a 2 MT toxic cobalt bomb, containing cobalt-60, which can contaminate a large area with radiation. The nuclear armed version will have a maximum speed of 50 knots, with this variant to now be known as the OMS-Reindeer.
The conventionally armed variant of the status-6, which will henceforth be known as the OMS-Lynx. The Lynx utilizes a conventional payload of supercavitating torpedoes, such as the Shkval 2. The Lynx variant of the Oceanic Multipurpose System (OMS) will be utilized to autonomously patrol the worlds oceans, and in combat will be primarily designed to attack carrier battle groups. Similar to the nuclear armed OMS-Reindeer, the Lynx class will normally be able to travel at relatively low speeds to maximize stealth, however in attack mode the drone will have an activatable high-speed mode (200 km/h) upon reaching a short finish range.
- The Poseidon family of drones will be a series of torpedo-shaped robotic mini-submarines which can travel at speeds of up to 185 km/h (100 kn), with the slower nuclear armed variant traveling at 100 km/h (54 kn).
- Each submarine will come with a range of 10,000 km (5,400 nmi; 6,200 mi) and a depth maximum of 1,000 m (3,300 ft).
- The Poseidon family uses a silent running strategy like other submarines to maximize its stealth. Its main stealth feature is its very low speed before it reaches the target area to minimize noise and possibility of detection.
- A second important stealth feature of the drone is the special design of the pump-jet for clearance of the drone's acoustic signature to imitate the noise of civil ships.
- The Poseidon class also has a seabed and mobile sites launch option. In the seabed option, known as Skif (Скиф), the Poseidon family can wait on the sea floor in a special container for as long as necessary. It is known that the Russian auxiliary vessel ZVEZDOCHKA 600 (Project 20180) with ice-breaking capability is being used for testing of the Poseidon drones, thus it's believed the ship can be also used as the platform for deploying and retrieving a seabed version of the drone.
- The Project 09852 Oscar-class submarine Belgorod and the Project 09851 Khabarovsk submarines are both capable of carrying up to four Poseidon family drones, as well as able to retrieve them. The Russian Navy will be aiming to bring four more similar submarines into service by 2030.
- Each UUV will cost $75 million dollars, and will begin serialized production in 2026. The Russian government plans to produce a total of 120 of the vessels over the course of 10 years.
New Command and Control Method for Wargaming
Coup d'Oeil (Stroke of the Eye)
Each generally will require Coup d’Oeil (CdO) during the game. The number a general needs will depend upon their rank and the number of men they command.
Generals will be able to generate CdO each turn, with higher ranked generals able to generate more than lower ranks. Someone like Napoleon or Wellington for example would have more than Murat or Junot. They will also start with a number of CdO which they can use at the deployment point to have units on the tabletop at the beginning of the battle.
CdO can then be spent during the course of the game on certain events:
Sending an ADC to a unit to activate and task it with taking and holding an objective.
Bring reserves onto the battlefield with a purpose to take and hold an objective.
There will be various ways to do so. A general will be able to generate so much CdO each turn, revealing units, holding objectives and routing enemy units from the table will also generate CdO. So let’s look at each of these in turn.
Each time a friendly unit closes to within 20cm (roughly 1 kilometre at scale) of an enemy that unit will be revealed (perhaps 30cm if the unit is stationed on a hill with clear line of sight), this will generate CdO for the General. At present I will set this to 1 CdO per unit. With games of roughly 50,000 men on each side this should equate to around 50 CdO.
CdO awarded for holding objectives will depend upon the objective which are split into Primary or Secondary objectives. The figures for generation from these should also be relatively low, so let’s start out by saying that holding a Primary objective (being within 10cm) will generate 2 CdO, while a secondary objective will generate 1 CdO. Let’s assume a player holds half of the objectives during the course of the game (1.5 Primary and 1.5 Secondary), over 50 turns this would give him 225 CdO.
Each time a unit is reduced to 0 morale it is routed and flees the battlefield. This will obviously not be a regular occurrence and without having performed any in depth play testing as yet, it is hard to determine how many on average will flee. Therefore we will need a holding number in the meantime. Let’s assume at this stage that perhaps 20% of an enemy army will flee, using our assumption of 50,000 men per army that equates to 10,000 men (or 100 strength).
I don’t think it would be entirely fair to have the strength of the unit as the reward, I’d rather have a base number which can be adjusted later if needs be. At the moment let’s assume that each routed enemy generates 10 CdO.
Through these events a General commanding 50,000 men against an army of a similar size, should roughly gain 315 CdO. He has an army of roughly 50,000 men and therefore would need 500 CdO to activate his units. He therefore needs to be able to Generate an additional 185 CdO.
However not every game will be at 50,000 men a side, some may be smaller and others slightly larger.
To calculate how many Coup d’Oeil points would be needed in a game our first point of call should be some historic information on army organisation during the time.
Some fantastic information can be found as always on Rodwargaming.
‘During the Napoleonic wars most nations had battalions whose established strength was between 700 to 1200 men, although the Austrians had some battalions which were slightly larger than this range. In practice however strength fell in the field so that the average effective battlefield strength of most battalions was some 600 men, although there were some significant variations. The battalion was the primary tactical unit in that although several battalions would co-operate in Brigades or Divisions, each battalion would normally manoeuvre and change formation separately. ‘
So if we use the basis that an average Battalion is 600-800 men at the moment
Brigade Strength (2-5 Battalions)
This is unlikely to be a game size, but this will help create the building blocks for larger games.
A Brigade would consist of between two to five battalions of 700 men, at the moment let’s assume this is an average at 3.5 battalions. In Clausewitz this would equate to an in-game strength of 24.5.
Division Level Game (2-5 Brigades) (Small Game)
This will likely by the smallest game size that Clausewitz would do. Using our building block from the previous section, we’ll assume that an average Brigade is roughly 24.5 Strength.
A Division will be made from 2-5 Brigades, so let’s use the average and plump at 3.5
If there are on average three Brigades to a Division each a strength 24.5, we would need to generate 85.75 points (24.5 x 3.5) for our Divisional Commander over the course of the game. So our basic maths once more is 85.75.5 / 50 = 1.715.
But we also have to factor in that other in our earlier calculations for holding objectives etc. We know that holding half the objectives for the entire game will generate 225 CdO. However for a divisional game we only need to generate 85 CdO. This suggests that perhaps for this size game there are too many objective, so let’s assume a Divisional Game will be 1 primary and 1 Secondary objective, this would equate to 75 CdO over the course of the game if an army held half.
We therefore need a further 10 CdO to be generated (85.75 – 75 = 10.75).
We also have the CdO generated from revealing enemy units, if they have a similar sized force we’re looking at 3.5 CdO (1 for each reveal), this brings us to 7.25 CdO to generate (10.75 – 3.5).
Perhaps a single of the enemies 3.5 units will be routed during the course of the game, giving us a further 10 CdO. That brings us to above our target by 2.75 CdO. But we’ll need some extra CdO so that our general can issue an order at the beginning of the game, therefore we’ll need to be able to add on our average Brigade strength of 24.5, this brings us to 21.75 CdO needed.
The simplest answer to this would be to allow a Divisional General to start the game with 25 CdO, however a Divisional General will be unable to generate CdO through the game, as they should be able to attain enough through good tactics to activate most of their other units.
Corp level Game (2-5 Divisions) (Medium Game)
This would more likely be a more common game size, with roughly 30,000 men a side a Corp Level General will need to raise around 300 CdO for their troops to be activated.
For the Corp Level Game, we may have two primary and two secondary objectives on the field, these would generate 150 CdO if a General held exactly half through the game.
With 3.5 Divisions each on average each with 3.5 Brigades, the revealed units would equate to a further 12 CdO.
This brings us to 162 CdO generated so far with a further 138 required as a minimum.
We also have the estimated 20% routed enemy at 10 CdO per unit. With an enemy army of roughly 12 units this would equate to perhaps 2 units, which would add a further 20 CdO. This brings our total to 182 CdO with an additional 118 required.
118 CdO over 50 turns would mean the player requires 2.36 per turn. So let’s say that a Corp level Commander can generate 3 CdO per turn as well as starting with 50 CdO so they may activate up to two units at the start.
Army level Game (2+ Corps) (Large Game)
This brings us to our final category of game. We’re going to assume at this point that the largest game we can handle is 2 corps each of roughly 60,000 men. This breaks our game down into 600 that each General will need to create.
We already have 225 from half of the Primary and Secondary objectives (3 of each), and in terms of revealed units this would be roughly be twice that of the Corp Level Game at around 24 units a side for 24 CdO. This brings our total to 249 CdO out of 600 needed.
We also have routed 20% of the enemy units giving us an additional 50 CdO leaving us with 299 CdO.
Our General therefore needs to be able to generate 300 CdO over 50 turns meaning 6 CdO a turn. Plus the usual of being able to activate 4 units in this case means they should start with 100 CdO.