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Final Reveal #3

#3 - Jon Fairplay Dalton – Pearl Islands – 3rd Place
You can pick apart aspects of who JFP as a character and compare them to others, but there’s no one even remotely similar that can match the epicness of his moniker.
Choking Walrus
Ah, Jon Dalton. The guy who creates a "Fairplay" persona to turn out as one of Survivor's best villain. From the Dead Grandma lie to his "Fuck You!" voting confessional to the F3 where he tries to get Lill to make a deal with him, Jon is simultaneously lovable and hateable - he's someone you love to root against, which is why his downfall losing to Lil makes his story all that much more sweet. Great, great character - I wouldn't be surprised if me having him at 7 is his lowest ranking. He's a definite contender for the crown.
Still the king of the villains after all these years. Fairplay is incredible. I don't rank him quite as high as I'm guessing the other four will, and I don't really want him to win this thing. But he deserves every ounce of praise he gets.
And now, KeepCalmAndHodorOn Jonny Fairplay is the most perfectly constructed Survivor character in the history of the show. This is bad in the small sense that it keeps him just below Richard and Sue for me, who have a level of personal depth and resonance that Fairplay just doesn't have. But that's the most minor of all minor complaints because outside of those two PI Fairplay is better than every other Survivor character who ever played and I struggle to come up with an argument that would convince me otherwise.
A huge reason for this is what todd_solondz pointed out in his fantastic write-up on Fairplay for the first rankdown- nobody else in the history of Survivor is as versatile as Fairplay, being placed into multiple situations in Pearl Islands, and shining in all of them. He's a cocky mastermind, a scrappy underdog, a loyal soldier, a scheming background manipulator, and pure comic relief at various points in the season and every time he makes the season better whenever he appears on screen. He frequently succeeds, but he fails almost as often. You never know what you're gonna get when Jonny Fairplay comes up on screen on Pearl Islands but you can count on two things- he's gonna bring the full Fairplay package both in character and in game, and he is gonna be entertaining as all hell while doing it.
Fairplay wasn't the first person to understand that Survivor was a TV show first and a game second. Hell, people like Gervase, Jenna, and Sean had known this from the beginning and had gone on the show solely for the chance of becoming famous or having a media career. And of course players like Colby and Tina in subsequent seasons were acutely aware of the fact that they were on TV and it affected the way they behaved and shaped the character that was ultimately created. But Fairplay I think was the first person to actually go out there and understand that if he was entertaining, if he was the type of one-of-a-kind character that could not be ignored, then that's how he would be remembered. Jonny Fairplay is almost a Frankenstein's monster of influences that coalesced to become a Survivor character. His inspiration from Rob Cesternino to play a game centered around flipping on allies and manipulating and betrayal is excruciatingly well documented, and I think you can see more than a little bit of Boston Rob in his character too, with the braggadocio and self-confident swagger, the palpable glee at manipulating the minds of others. Outside Survivor, Fairplay was obviously also heavily influenced by pro wrestling. In wrestling, selling a story as though it were real is pretty much the entire point, and every good story has a good villain. And Fairplay knew that every good Survivor story had a villain too. Richard, Sue, Jerri, Lex, Boston Rob, John, Brian, Clay, Heidi, Rob Cesternino. The list went on and on. And the combination of Survivor and wrestling influences gave Fairplay one of the greatest ideas any Survivor ever had. What if I set out to be the heel? Wrestling writes its villains, while Survivor creates them but what if Fairplay gave the show a perfect villain who could make any story they tried to tell even better?
The character of Jonny Fairplay works on every level. Narratively, he fits into whatever situation Jon Dalton manages to get himself into. As a TV character, Jon understands how to work the camera for all its worth. He's a brilliant narrator. He always understands what's happening and he learned from Rob C. that making jokes in confessionals was a way to get people to see you and think of you as a villain without necessarily doing it in front of your tribe (although Fairplay does not hesitate to start shit with his tribe when it suits his purposes). And even when he's just narrating regular tribe or game events, like the buried treasure, he adds his own flair to it. He can sell a failed twist like the treasure by building it up so much in his confessionals as a potential bounty for his tribes so that when it turns out to be total garbage they can all be crushingly disappointed.
And while it's the little things, from his narrations to his relationships with characters as disparate as Rupert and Sandra and Burton and Lil, Fairplay also knew that every great villain needs their big moment. And he meticulously planned his, starting before he ever got left for the Pearl Islands and continuing right up until Thunder D walked out onto that beach. What more really needs to be said about the lie? It checks every box. It's so hilarious and unexpected and even when you know it's happening it's great because everyone sells the shit out of it. From Fairplay and Thunder D, to the crying Lil and stone faced Sandra. And the editors hit us with the truth at just the right moment, as Fairplay and his buddy congratulate each other while they walk up the beach and he tells us that his grandma is "sitting at home watching Jerry Springer right now." What kind of a person would ever dream up an idea like this? It's the Survivor equivalent of a supervillain's master scheme. Only Jonny Fairplay that's who.
But Jon Dalton can't get all the credit for making Jonny Fairplay the near perfect Survivor character that he is. The cast of Pearl Islands, the theme, the twists, the strokes of good fortune along the way all combined to give the Fairplay character pretty much every beat you would want to see him hit and a wide variety of great character to play off. There was the great hero to cast down in Rupert. The anti-hero who isn't afraid of him in Sandra. The great henchman in Burton. The eternal laughingstock and victim who, in the greatest twist of all, ends up bringing the villain down in Lil. Heck, he even got a strong, self-righteous alpha male in Andrew Savage who would respond perfectly to Fairplay's taunts as the leader of the opposition. And the twists and turns of Pearl Islands, both those executed by Fairplay and those that were just good luck, made him better and gave us something new for him to do at every turn. Whether it be wiggling out of a tight spot or gloating over a victory or hanging on for dear life on a bobbing plank in the middle of the ocean, Jonny Fairplay gets to be the star.
Speaking of that plank, the ending for Fairplay might be the best part. Brought down by Lil, who he had manipulated to do his bidding for week after week was not hell bent on destroying him. Somehow Fairplay looks both weak, for losing to goddamn Lil of all people, and strong, for hanging tough in the balancing challenge and calling on every last bit of strength to work his final miracle. But in the end it was inevitable. And he gets the perfect closing line. Jeff Probst might think Lil said "Game On." But Fairplay knows it really meant "Game Over."
Imagining Survivor without Fairplay is like imagining the world without laughter. It wouldn't be destroyed but there would just be so much joy missing. Some have tried to copy his method, creating a character who could be larger than life and perfectly entertaining. Ben Wade came sort of close but the character of Coach just isn't as perfect as the character of Fairplay. Nobody else is even worth mentioning. In the end, Jonny Fairplay stands alone, the greatest character Survivor could have ever hoped to get after Borneo. I don't think Richard or Sue could ever be topped, but Fairplay could conceivably be bested. He might be the first modern Survivor character really (or second after Rob C.). But let's be real. The odds of that are very slim. The stars aligned just perfectly for Jonny Fairplay and if such a magical occurrence were to ever happen again, we would be extraordinarily lucky Survivor fans indeed.
Predicted Ranking: 1 Average Prediction: 1.7 Average Placement: 5.2 Slicer 37: 4 WilburDes: 5 KeepCalmAndHodorOn: 3 Choking Walrus: 7 Fleaa: 7 Rankdown I: 2
submitted by repo_sado to SurvivorRankdownII

2019 Twins Rookie Roundup - Part 2

Hub post
Today is pitchers, pitchers, pitchers, a second baseman, and more pitchers. It's especially hard to talk about these guys because it takes a fair amount of work just to find out what they throw, and their sample sizes at this point are often very low.
8.239 Casey Legumina, RHP
Age: 22 Level: N/A Baseball Reference page
Casey Legumina was drafted by Toronto in 2016 in the 25th round out of high school, but chose to attend Gonzaga instead. He was drafted again last year by the Indians, this time in the 35th round (not sure why he was eligible that soon), but chose to stay one more year. 2019 started great, as he pitched 24.0 innings in his first four starts and allowed just 4 earned runs, had a WHIP under 1.000, and struck out 29. Unfortunately, he got injured somehow in his fourth start and has not played since. However, a fastball that hits the mid-90s was enough of an asset to get him drafted. I'd expect he gets his pro debut in rookie ball next summer.
9.269 Brent Headrick, LHP
Age: 21 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
Brent Headrick's fastball maxes out in the low 90s, and he doesn't flash exceptional stuff, but he still managed 101 Ks in 96.0 innings in his last year at Illinois State. That, along with a 1.094 WHIP, was enough to get him drafted in the top ten rounds. He didn't join Elizabethton until late August and threw just 3.2 innings in which he struck out two and allowed just two hits and two unearned runs, though he did walk five batters. Since he didn't seem completely out of his depth, he could go straight to A ball in 2020, but it's no guarantee.
10.299 Ben Gross, RHP
Age: 22 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
Ben Gross was drafted by the Astros in the 34th round last year, but decided to transfer from Princeton to Duke for one more year in college. This proved to be a good choice, as he got the opportunity to throw quite a bit more and get himself drafted much earlier. Neither his ERA (4.40) or his WHIP (1.295) look particularly impressive, but he averaged a strikeout per inning and presumably has an interesting repertoire that the Twins liked.
Gross did get in plenty of work in Elizabethton, pitching 52.1 innings over 11 starts. He did have a number of very good outings, but struggled for a long stretch toward the end. However, he finished the year on a good note with 5.0 IP, 2 hits, no runs or walks, and seven strikeouts. He'll likely be in A ball next year, but he'll need to bring down his ERA and WHIP from 4.30 and 1.338, respectively, in order to keep up.
11.329 Tanner Brubaker, RHP
Age: 21 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
Brubaker was drafted from JUCO in 2018 by the Rays (25th round), but opted to transfer to UC Irvine, where he had a 2.99 ERA and a 1.120 WHIP in 72.1 innings. That's an impressive mark for a guy who only struck out 50 batters. However, he's yet to play in the Twins organization.
12.359 Sean Mooney, RHP
Age: 21 Level: N/A Baseball Reference page
Sean Mooney pitched three excellent years at St. John's, posting a 2.13 ERA, a 1.038 WHIP, and 249 strikeouts over 244.2 innings in 3 years. Unfortunately, his last was cut short by Tommy John's surgery, and as a result he's yet to play with the organization. Since he had the surgery in late April, I would hazard a guess that he kicks off his professional career when rookie ball starts up next June, rather than going straight to A ball.
Despite the injury, I think he's an exciting prospect. As usual, I can't find a lot of information on his actual pitches, but his college numbers are really good. His name will be one to keep an eye on next year.
13.389 Dylan Thomas, RHP
Age: 22 Level: A (Cedar Rapids) Baseball Reference page
The Twins actually took Thomas in the 38th round last year, but he did not go gentle into that good night, and elected to spend one more season at Hawaii. His numbers actually weren't quite as good in his senior year, but he pitched more innings and must have still showed something they liked. He left Hawaii with a career 1.96 ERA and .930 WHIP, which ain't bad.
Thomas signed quickly and made 22 appearances this year, half with Elizabethton and half in Cedar Rapids. In A ball, he managed a 2.00 ERA over 18.0 innings, and while his WHIP was a little elevated, I'm not too worried since the scoring stayed low. He pitched well enough that I think he could go straight to A+ next year, but the Twins may want to see him in A a little more first. Either way, he should pitch for Fort Myers at some point next year.
14.419 Cody Laweryson, RHP
Age: 20 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
First things first: it is not Lawyerson, it's Laweryson. I know this because Baseball Reference wasn't coming up with anyone, which is funny, since they clearly made the same mistake - the player ID in the URL says "lawyer."
Anyway, Cody Llanfairpwllgwyngyll was primarily a reliever in his first two years at Maine, but transitioned to a starting role in 2019, and lived up to the task. In 72.2 innings of work, he put up a 2.85 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, and a 9.9 K/9. His usage thus far has been a mix of both, but it was mostly long relief in his first month of appearances in Elizabethton. I don't really put much stock into usage in rookie ball as far as future plans, but it's good to have context. For whatever reason, Laweryson was given one start in A ball in which he went five shutout innings with just two hits and one walk, but then returned to E-Town for the rest of the year. In his last four appearances there, he started in each one. And the last one...man, you're not gonna believe this. In his 8/26 start against the Greeneville Reds, Laweryson pitched six innings, allowed no runs on three hits, and struck out fifteen. I know rookie ball can be a strange place, but that's just obscene.
His combined line for 2019 comes out to a 1.57 ERA, .804 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 (10.8 without the last game) over 46.0 IP. The sample size is low when you look at his usage - he was clearly better as a starter, but he only had 3-4 real starts, and 11 total appearances. At any rate, it's a very solid start for Laweryson and we'll keep an eye on him in A ball next year.
15.449 Louie Varland, RHP
Age: 21 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
Louie Varland is a local prospect - first a North St. Paul graduate, then a student at Concordia. He put up an excellent 2018 season with a 1.41 ERA, and while he wasn't able to recreate it in 2019, reports say he increased his velocity from high 80s/low 90s to the mid 90s, which of course has big implications for his pro career, and he became very consistent with strikeouts.
The Twins sent him to Elizabethton, where he made three appearances before being put on the injured list (undisclosed). He pitched five scoreless innings in his first two relief appearances, but struggled a little more in his first start, allowing two runs in 3.2 innings. He did average just over one strikeout per inning in that time. With so little information, I can't say where he'll be next year.
16.479 Ryan Shreve, RHP
Age: 21 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
Ryan Shreve pitched three seasons at the University of the Pacific, which I guess is what they call a really big school of fish. (Laugh, dammit! I'm funny!) He also played for St. Cloud in the Northwoods League the summer after his first collegiate season, so he's already familiar with Minnesota, and actually had better numbers there than the years before and after. However, in his last year at Pacific, he became a full-time starter and put up his best season yet, putting up a 3.08 ERA and .861 WHIP in 79.0 innings, although his strikeouts dropped to 6.4 per 9 innings.
Nonetheless, he was primarily a reliever in Elizabethton, where he pitched 45.0 across 14 appearances. His ERA was reasonably good at 3.40, but he seemed to consistently allow one run in each outing. In truth, it was only half his outings, but he didn't so much dominate in his outings - more like eat innings while staying composed. There's value in that, sure, but he'll need to establish himself a little better in the lower levels if he's going to get to the big leagues.
If we compare his pro and college numbers, the strikeout rate is way up - 11.6 K/9 - but for every extra strikeout, he's allowing an extra hit, as he's allowed 11.0 H/9. His BABIP against sits at an appalling .419. Now, I'd guess that BABIP is higher across the board at this level, but that's ridiculous. I'm not sure if it's bad luck, bad defense, or allowing hard contact. I'd bet it's a mix of luck and contact, which means he has work to do, but maybe not as much as it seems. At any rate, I think he could use more time in rookie ball - he doesn't turn 22 until after the season starts - but we'll see what the Twins think.
18.539 Edouard Julien, 2B
Age: 20 Level: N/A Baseball Reference page
Julien made it back-to-back Canadian draftees for the Twins (our 17th round pick, LHP Antoine Jean, decided to go to LSU rather than sign). He was first drafted out of high school by the Phillies in 2017, but decided to play at Auburn rather than sign as a 37th rounder. Usually, a player that was drafted once isn't eligible again until they've completed three years of college, but he was declared eligible because he spent a year at a secondary school that the MLB decided was equivalent to a year of college.
Julien hit 17 home runs in his freshman year and broke the school's freshman RBI record, previously held by Frank Thomas, with 69. Nice! He also slashed .275/.398/.556. The next year was not as successful, as he only hit nine home runs and slashed .248/.378/.435. He did drop his K% from 31.5 to 26.2, which is very notable, so perhaps the other numbers are still adjusting to a new approach at the plate. (Or...) Defensively, per MLB.com, he's not a standout, and will likely end up at first base or left field whose value lies in slugging.
All that said, I'm not sure what he's been up to this summer. He signed with a $493k bonus - which is about 420 (nice) picks above slot value - but bbref shows that he played six games for Hyannis of the Cape Cod League, which starts a week after the draft. I'm guessing he hadn't decided whether he was going to sign and played those six games before reaching a deal, but I'm not sure what the whole story was. Per his MiLB.com page, he signed on July 11th, was placed on the temporarily inactive list on July 22nd, removed from said list on August 6th, then put on the 60 day injured list on August 15th. So maybe he got injured while playing for Hyannis? Or...I dunno.
Here we go! After some creative googling, I found this Twins Daily article. He was at the Pan Am games in Peru, playing for Team Canada, thus the temporarily inactive list. However, he suffered an elbow injury in practice and had to get TJ injury. No word on why he played a few games in the collegiate league, but my original guess stands. I expect we'll see him back at Elizabethton next year.
19.569 Niall Windeler, LHP
Age: 20 Level: Rookie (GCL Twins) Baseball Reference page
The third straight Canadian drafted by the Twins, Niall Windeler is the only one to attend a Canadian school. The Toronto native pitched three seasons at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, which seems to mostly play Pacific Northwest schools. Unfortunately, that means his stats aren't on Baseball Reference, and their website isn't as good as bbref. At any rate, he was a solid three-year starter there, but was used as a reliever in the GCL. He struggled a lot in the first five appearances, allowing 2-3 runs in all but one shutout appearance, and only went more than an inning once. But in his last five, he had four scoreless appearances, pitched nine innings, and allowed only one run (though there were three more unearned in the same game). Just compare his monthly splits: July - 11.12 ERA, 5.2 IP, 2.824 WHIP, 7.9 K/9; August - 1.00 ERA, 9.0 IP, 1.000 WHIP, 10.0 K/9. I'd bet he goes to A ball at some point next year, but whether he starts there or spends most of the season between rookie leagues, I can't say.
20.599 Owen Griffith, RHP
Age: 21 Level: Rookie+ (Elizabethton) Baseball Reference page
Griffith saw success in limited time in his first season at Clemson, but struggled in the same number of innings the next year, and was no better in an expanded role the next year, though his strikeout numbers did go up each season. I can't find much about him, but presumably he had some sort of pitch profile the organization liked. Though he missed about a month with injury and only made seven appearances, he was pretty darn good. He allowed just one run in 11.2 innings and struck out 15, though he did struggle a bit with walks. (That single run came in the last game before he went on the injured list, so that may have played a role.) Nonetheless, he put up a very good 1.114 WHIP. The low number of appearances may keep him in E-town come spring, but I would bet he's in Cedar Rapids sooner rather than later. As a reliever, he's less exciting as a prospect, but it's always intriguing when a team selects a player with less than enticing college stats and then he flashes in his pro debut.
submitted by noseonarug17 to noseonarug17

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